Analyst predicts $199 Wii by holidays

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter says all three console makers are likely to cut the price of their wares during the back half of the year.

Any hopes that the gaming industry would buck its spring slide in May were quashed yesterday when the NPD Group reported US retail sales dipped 23 percent to $863.3 million during the month. Hardware sales took a particular drubbing, with Nintendo's juggernaut Wii selling just 289,500 units, the console's lowest tally since January 2008. Sony's and Microsoft's systems fared equally poor, selling a respective 131,000 and 175,000 units in May.

Michael Pachter

Speaking to GameSpot shortly after NPD's report, Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich told GameSpot that he believes Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo have all "reached saturation at current price points," surmising that a round of price cuts could help reinvigorate the sagging console market.

In an investor note today, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter echoed Divnich's sentiments--and made another prediction. He believes supply of Nintendo's console has at last caught up with demand. "In order to hit its full-year Wii shipment forecast, we expect Nintendo to cut the price of the Wii before holiday, likely to $199.99," Pachter forecast.

"Next generation hardware sales were amazingly weak in May (down 21 percent overall on a unit basis, with consoles down 44 percent and handhelds up 15 percent), signaling that the video game consumer is being impacted by the recession," Pachter went on to note, before predicting that Microsoft and Sony may cut the price of their wares during the latter half of 2009 as well.

"In the second half of the year, we expect Sony to cut price for the PS3," he said. "If the cut is deep enough, we expect Microsoft to respond (either with bundles or with a price cut of its own, even as Microsoft just introduced an Xbox 360 Elite bundle with free games Halo 3 and Fable II). If we're right, hardware demand should get stronger in the back half of the year."

75 Comments

  • hesel

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 6:52 am GMT

    Didn't they increase the price in the UK by £20 ?

  • RazerBlade13

    Posted Jun 14, 2009 1:49 pm GMT

    They need this in order to keep up with the PS3 and 360. But price cuts all around are great.

  • 2bitSmOkEy

    Posted Jun 14, 2009 12:35 pm GMT

    lol @ all the hate for industry analysts.

  • mini_guv

    Posted Jun 14, 2009 11:39 am GMT

    It most likeley will have to drop, with more features (even if you neglect Natal) coming to the xbox 360 and the rise of Blu-ray on both sides of the atlantic giving the ps3 an edge! ASDA has already sold the Wiii for a week at £149 a drop of £40 (nearly $80)!

  • beardmoen

    Posted Jun 14, 2009 8:20 am GMT

    I predict free pancakes with every Wii.

  • Avenger1324

    Posted Jun 14, 2009 7:04 am GMT

    I can't see Nintendo dropping their price, instead offering the upgraded controller as part of the bundle instead.

    Similarly MS don't need to drop the price of the 360, since it is by far the cheapest already, and comes in a range of models to fit different budgets.

    The PS3 is the one that is long overdue a price cut - I just hope it isn't another cheap shot where it only gets a price cut in one region or something equally lame.

  • fauljosh

    Posted Jun 14, 2009 12:06 am GMT

    Wii price cut this year? Nope. Not gonna happen. They'll pack in Wii Sports Resort along with Motion+ and still include the original Wii Sports. Sony HAS to do something. Maybe some really really good bundles. Something crazy I think. Like a 120gig with 2 games and 2 Blu Ray movies but no price cut.

  • console-deity

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 9:43 pm GMT

    I'd say the we'll see the Xbox 720 around 2013-2014 with a better version of Natal standard in all SKUs plus a controllers just like current 360 controllers. I predict Wii 2 (beefier CPU, GPU, RAM, Motions + built-in Wiimote) will launch shortly after and Sony will fallow suit just after Nintendo trying almost the same strategy they did this gen but with their vibrator controller added as a standard feature. As a side note I expect the Xbox 720 to utilize the micro holographic disks developed by General Electric, sony will continue to use blu-ray and Nintendo stick with DVD.

  • console-deity

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 9:43 pm GMT

    I don't see a Wii price drop this year, a bundle... ...possibly, 360 I see a price cut somewhere between August and October (that or a really good bundle), PS3 isn't likely to get a price drop before 2010 (even if they're breaking even now they aren't making money on it or any of their divisions). I expect when Natal releases in mid 2010 it will be bundled with new systems and one (probably casual game) at no price increase, stand alone Natal will probably be between $70 - $100 (again bundled with one game that will again probably be a casual title). I see a price drop for Wii by 2010 (probably down to $199) , that or a decent bundle (probably not a casual game this time and Wii Sports will still be part of the package).
    When Sony does do a price drop as I said before it will probably be in 2010 and $100 off the current price (maybe around the release of Natal (though that wont hurt Natal's release one bit)).
    I expect by the end of this generation Wii will have sold the most consoles but 360 will have sold more games/peripherals/DLC/downloadable games and sony will be trailing in last place for systems and games but beat Wii in downloaded games (virtual console games aren't all that good) but still trail 360 in DLC by a lot.

  • Zerabp

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 6:14 pm GMT

    @ Chromium While equal graphically to the top 360 games there is a game that is probably the most underrated game of this console cycle that is a ps3 exclusive. Also considering that it has still scored high marks from most places and was released while it was still "In" to bash Sony whether or not you were a fanboy, that speaks a lot to how perfect everything is about this game. The name is Uncharted: Drakes Fortune and with it's sequel coming out soon both games will make it worth owning a PS3 for. As for 360 seriously people buy Ninja Blade it may be a rip off of Ninja Gaiden but it's a really fun Rip off (sorry had to plug this under-appreciated game as well.).

  • kavadias1981

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 12:33 pm GMT

    I predict that his prediction will be accurate.

  • wills_b

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 12:09 pm GMT

    Whoever thinks that wii sport resort will increase sales, I respectfully disagree.

    Wii motion plus is designed to make the wiimote an actual motion sensor device not just a waggle stick. So it will appeal to people who already have the wii, but if you don't have a wii, why would something that improves it be of any interest? Surely it will just highlight that the wiimote is a bit of a disappointment and perhaps even put you off buying one?

    I would be surprised if there isn't a PS3 cut soon. The console is more expensive than an Xbox360 arcade and a sony blu ray player now.

    The Xbox I will be amazed if there is a price cut, the price point is so low already and it is still outselling the PS3.
    I imagine that it will remain at it's current price until Natal comes out and then it will either be bundled with new consoles for free or for a neglible price increase.

    But hey I've been wrong before.

  • thingta42

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 7:34 am GMT

    im sure sales on all 3 three consoles will pick up again near christmas time.. October onwards me thinks. im pretty sure the wii will have a price cut this year though

  • ftjx

    Posted Jun 13, 2009 4:47 am GMT

    wasn't there an interview on this site, with Reggie predicting the Wii would outsell the 360 and the ps3 combined this month? and no pachter your wrong Wii sport resort will soon be out with the motion+. Just think what that game will do for sales and now with the wii motion+ there will be games for nerds like us who read nerd sites like this one. So why cut the price?

  • hatieshorrer

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 10:36 pm GMT

    Pachter is famous for making accurate predictions but for my own reasons Im going to predict a PS3 price drop wont happen until sometime next year and the Wii I doubt will have a price drop either this year.

  • TBoogy

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 9:52 pm GMT

    Its always made me laugh how users here never seemed to understand what an analyst does, why, and for whom.
    To the guys saying "do analysts get paid? Why?" I will point it out. It states:
    "In an INVESTOR NOTE today, Wedbush Morgan SECURITIES ANALYSTS..."
    They are not in this for fanboy wars. They bring these things up because it is a duty for the investing clients of his firm. That Gamespot chooses to report it is up to them. But if you want to invest in MS this year because you believe this cut will happen and sales will skyrocket, raising the stock value, then he has done his job.

  • Holyknight_CJ

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 9:08 pm GMT

    Pachter seems like an alright guy, but
    a) they stopped being next-gen systems a long time ago, and
    b) gamespot covers too many rumors and analyst predictions.

    Then again I read many of the stories anyways, so maybe I should just quit being such a complainer... I'll get started on that tomorrow.

  • PS3_3DO

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 8:58 pm GMT

    If the PS3 is down to $299 you can bet Nintendo is going to cut the price to $199.

  • godzillavskong

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 8:48 pm GMT

    Once they drop it to 49.99 I'll buy one.

  • bgres077

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 8:07 pm GMT

    Not so fast my friend.

  • hannify

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 6:42 pm GMT

    I doubt it. Why would a company put the price down when they selling well for being high.

    If your selling something for £200 and its only costing you £60 - why would you stop?

  • ElJay2010

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 5:10 pm GMT

    @ chromium42 do u even know wut ur talkn about. yes the ps3 is expensive but to talk bout exlusives ur an idiot. i can name prob 11 or 12 AAA exclusives for the ps3 an only 4 for the 360.

  • kejigoto

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 4:28 pm GMT

    Oh sweet, its not like I haven't heard this before....

    When was the PS3 supposed to get a price cut? Before or during E3 right? Still no price cut? Someone doesn't seem to be doing their job that well.

    I wished I could get paid to sit around and make predictions about the gaming industry and then be wrong about it constantly. Would be a sweet job, a do nothing gig.

  • grigjd3

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 4:25 pm GMT

    I did see a Wii available for the asking at BestBuy the other day...

  • muffinmanjedi

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 4:13 pm GMT

    I'm tired of "analysts" claiming that price cuts are going to happen
    of course they're going to happen eventually! That's the law of Supply and Demand, and it doesn't take an "analyst" to figure it out

  • gamer082009

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 4:08 pm GMT

    If there's really a price cut for all 3, Microsoft won't drop the price by more than $20-$30. Nintendo probably wont drop it more than $50 (obviously) and Sony $50-$100. But maybe the sales of Sony's console will need to dip below the 100,000 mark before they realize -houston we have a problem-

  • FrontLinePlaya

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 4:00 pm GMT

    even though i dont care for the wii i doubt they will lower the price cause it still sells really well maybe they will when it starts to do crappy. plus nintindo said they dont have plans to lower the price anytime soon

  • Sins-of-Mosin

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 3:58 pm GMT

    @enoslives7 - Thats called being smart and getting new buyers which something Sony still can't figure out how to do. Enjoy that perm last place in everything.

  • ropumar

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 3:53 pm GMT

    $199 still expensive and overpriced for its tech.

  • SSBFan12

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 3:30 pm GMT

    I hope some prices go downt that would be really awesome if they did.

  • da_chub

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 3:20 pm GMT

    how r we going to pay all these analysts' if prices are going to get dropped?

  • dogpigfish

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 3:15 pm GMT

    I don't think they need to. They've done a good job on their campaign, no sense in ruining it now. If the trend was for Nintendo alone in comparison to its competitors it might make sense. Face it, the sales in consoles are declining because anyone who wanted one has bought one.

  • MidniteShadow

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 2:48 pm GMT

    I honestly dont believe a 200$ price cut by nintendo, nintendo did state a few articles back a price cut wont be in the works, maybe a bundle but not a 200$ wii alone. I believe they wil bundle games with the system for decent price of 250$ wich is what it is now.

  • Darkon_X

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 2:43 pm GMT

    I'm with SalarianChemist.

    Here's my prediction: Project Natal won't come out until 2011. There you heard it here first. Private message me for my address so I can get my check. $2000 is OK, no more. Seriously I don't know why the media pays attention to this guy. He predicted a PS3 price cut by April and that didn't happen, just like the rest of his "predictions". F off pachter.

  • SalarianChemist

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 2:38 pm GMT

    I have been saying this same sort of stuff for ages, and so have many other people on Gamespot.

    If this guy is getting paid for his generic forms of "analysis" I think I should be making some money, too...And so should the other people on this website who submit comments.

    So, when do we get our checks.

  • zako94

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 2:03 pm GMT

    hope they do that i'll buy a Wii for tht price

  • Grim_Reaper007

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:53 pm GMT

    I wonder if analysts get paid? If so, that's a sweet job, i can make up stuff like this no problem!

  • OfficialBed

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:51 pm GMT

    I'd buy a Wii again for sure for that price.

  • Vhial

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:34 pm GMT

    $199...impressive...too bad there is only like, 10 people left to buy it, everyone else already has it...and in the time frame of me typing that, 2 others just bought it...down to 8...opps...5 now...better hurry.

  • wiidsduelpack

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:32 pm GMT

    Analysts know what should be done but would the gaming companies actually want to give a price drop to their consoles, my answer NO! Games should be cheaper, not the consoles in my opinion?

  • raahsnavj

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:18 pm GMT

    I would expect a cut of all three of the consoles. Or at least a really good bundle out of the X360 and cuts from the other 2.

  • Genexi2

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:09 pm GMT

    How long have analysts been predicting price-drops that have yet to occur this console generation?

  • taylormadederek posted Jun 12, 2009 1:08 pm GMT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    taylormadederek

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:08 pm GMT (hide)

    Hey Rottonwood .... you have a problem with my uncle?

  • Maxninjaman

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:04 pm GMT

    The wii i have at home is from Day1 and it's the worst purchase i have ever made i only play gamecube games and virtual console game and the occasional once in a year good wii game

  • Rottenwood

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 1:02 pm GMT

    I love his super-professional picture, too. Looks like a random shot of some guy's uncle at a barbecue.

  • taylormadederek posted Jun 12, 2009 12:59 pm GMT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    taylormadederek

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 12:59 pm GMT (hide)

    I figure my Wii is worth about $0.01 as it is a POS and never gets played.

  • FUsquarepants

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 12:59 pm GMT

    I'm still waiting for the Wii HD to come out this year. that's what he said last year.

    He also predicted the Wii would sell a LITTLE over 2 million in it's entire life

    LOL

  • paullywog

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 12:49 pm GMT

    all this talk of reinvigorating the console market just gets me. ever think that with these huge numbers of systems sold, that maybe eventually everyone will have what they want? besides, as long as the wii is the cheapest (functioning) system, why should they drop the price? the arcade tried to answer back but the memory on that thing is a joke.

  • gohonaf

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 12:42 pm GMT

    Michael Pachter is an idiot. His lame predictions never come true.

  • rohail88

    Posted Jun 12, 2009 12:29 pm GMT

    No point of cutting wii price just yet!Its doing great right now!

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