wow, it's still crazy to see nintendo in front, the bad thing is I love nintendo to death and still haven't bought a ds or a wii
Extraordinary continues to be the norm, as industry watchers predict 30-43 percent software growth for May.
Despite having been out for only five days, Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV and Nintendo's Mario Kart Wii had a substantial impact on April's NPD sales data. For the month, total revenues soared to $1.23 billion, with software sales alone up 68 percent to $654.7 million. With the NPD Group expected to issue its May sales data later this week, analysts are once again expecting double-digit software growth, unsurprisingly led by GTAIV, Mario Kart, and Nintendo's latest heavy hitter, Wii Fit.
Last month, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter tossed a wild pitch, erroneously predicting software revenue would rocket skyward by 113 percent. For the month of May, however, Pachter has come back with a prediction more in line with this year's monthly outcomes, saying that software will surge 39 percent year-over-year to $530 million. Pachter's estimate hits the middle road between Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson's $545 million prediction (up 43 percent) and Lazard Capital Market's Colin Sebastian, who anticipates $495 million in software sales (up 30 percent).
The biggest X factor impacting sales data for May is Nintendo's fitness simulator Wii Fit. Though the game has generated heavy interest from Nintendo's casual gaming crowd, the publisher has failed to adequately feed its North American retail channels. With the game having launched in Europe in April, Pachter believes Nintendo limited US supplies to 500,000 copies of the game, all of which sold out. Wilson concurs with Pachter over spot shortages, but believes Nintendo funneled 750,000 units stateside.
"[W]e expect the supply situation will begin to improve over the next several months," noted Pachter. "Wii Fit's May 21 launch here was likely supported by only 500,000 game units, limiting opportunity to sell more Wii hardware units."
Nintendo's Wii Fit notwithstanding, analysts believe the strong holiday 2007 lineup will continue to buoy 2008 software sales. Unsurprisingly, Activision's Call of Duty 4 and Guitar Hero III are expected to again post strong numbers, but all three analysts believe the publisher on the whole will have taken a hit compared to last May due to a tough comparison against Spider-Man 3. MTV Games and Harmonix's Rock Band is also once again expected to perform well.
GTAIV's impact on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 hardware sales was a much-speculated topic leading up to the game's launch in April, and NPD's numbers from last month indicated neither system received a substantial bump. Sebastian believes that trend will continue into May. He did note, however, that the Xbox 360 is primed for a $50 price cut later this year, though Sony will hold steady to its current price point for the PS3.
Taking a crack at hardware sales figures for May, Pachter believes Nintendo's Wii and DS will once again dramatically outpace the competition, with 750,000 and 550,000 units selling of each system, respectively. With the PS3 and Xbox 360 running a tight race the previous two months, Pachter believes Microsoft's console pulled ahead in May by 25,000 units, selling 250,000 to 225,000.
darkride "I posted my reply this morning, at home, over coffee as I perused the morning headlines. This post is me, coming back after a very late lunch, and checking gamespot out of curiosity with an hour left to go, and with markets closed. My surfing habits after market hours has zero impact the performance of my client's portfolios. " Oh really? I was going to let this thread go, but then I went into the EA anti-trust lawsuit forum and saw a few posts by you which it turns out is a huge understatement. You posted at the following times: 2:42 pm CT 2:13 pm CT 1:46 pm CT 1:34 pm CT 1:20 pm CT 1:06 pm CT 12:58 pm CT 12:55 pm CT 12:36 pm CT 12:19 pm CT 12:02 pm CT 11:52 am CT 11:45 am CT 11:34 am CT 11:18 am CT 11:06 am CT 10:58 am CT 10:25 am CT That's just incredible. That's only in that forum and some of those posts are long. How can anybody believe anything you say now? The only reason you didn't reply to me earlier is because my post was right after your last post you made at work before going to lunch. You probably could have gone to lunch earlier but you were obviously very busy posting. BUSTED!!!
darkride "Congrats to that. I think we can all safely retire this thread now knowing once again nothing of any consequence was discussed due to negative influences that always feel the need to steer things back to ridiculous console war posts, despite the fact that it almost veered towards intellectual discussion of gamer issues for just the briefest of seconds." The fact that you even brought up that MS might bow out of making consoles based on speculation on a conference call is a negative to me as well as millions of other people who love playing on their 360 or plan to buy one. We look forward to a next gen MS console when they introduce it years later. So somebody coming in to a news forum to post something like what you did is very negative. The negative that I introduced was only negative to you. Your original post started a console war. That quote from Shane Kim said "... launching a digital system rather than a traditional expensive piece of hardware." It sounds to me like he is saying it would be a game system that isn't traditional in that it would be a set top box that does more than plays games, such as downloads movies, networks to your PC, acts as a DVR, sets your room temp, tells your freezer to make more ice etc... But it would still play video games. The 360 and PS3 can already do a bunch of those things anyway. If you don't like your work ethics being called out, which I based on the glut of other posts you've made in the past, then don't make it sound like I'm off in my own fantasy world because I disagree with you.
And here, just because it has to do with our discussion IGN ran part of an interview with Shane Kim, new Corporate Vice President of Strategy and Business Development at Microsoft. IGN commented "While the statement offers no details, it does suggest that Microsoft is at least exploring the idea of launching a digital system rather than a traditional expensive piece of hardware." This would also seem to lean towards what the analysts have been discussing lately during earnings talks regarding MS, of MS rethinking their console plans. And somehow out of all this, I'm the one getting thumbed down for even talking about it. Sheesh!
@ goldeneye_basic. To clarify: Not me. Not my opinions. Just discussing an issue I've been hearing more of in the course of my normal business and I understand the logic behind it, I just don't see it happening. I think talking about games sales and console futures in a forum dedicated to analysts recommendations is quite within bounds. I agree with you 100%, I don't think MS will walk away at this point. I was not discussing Sony. Sony is a different storey all together. Sony was supposed to take a loss on each system until about the end of the year, that was the plan. Now, by all reports, it sounds like they will start to make a profit this summer. This doesn't even enter into the point I was debating, which is it's generally held that you don't lose 6 billion dollars to make maybe 1 billion between two console cycles. Can you see how this might be frowned upon in financial circles? As for my work ethics, that's really none of your concern, is it now? I posted my reply this morning, at home, over coffee as I perused the morning headlines. This post is me, coming back after a very late lunch, and checking gamespot out of curiosity with an hour left to go, and with markets closed. My surfing habits after market hours has zero impact the performance of my client's portfolios. Anyway, you apparently killed off what was a fairly logical and non-fanboy exchange of ideas prior to your involvement. Congrats to that. I think we can all safely retire this thread now knowing once again nothing of any consequence was discussed due to negative influences that always feel the need to steer things back to ridiculous console war posts, despite the fact that it almost veered towards intellectual discussion of gamer issues for just the briefest of seconds.
Darkride, Wow you can't even own up to your own statements and faulty logic. You see, I don't think MS or Sony should bow out of the console market. Yet by the tone of your posts you think MS should call it quits. Why else would you repeat something as dubious as what somebody else supposedly said on a conference call in a forum that wasn't even talking about that? MS lost billions so that they could get a foothold of the console market. Now that they are making money, there is no way they are going to walk away. You said that since they lost billions in the past, there is a possibility they may walk away. There is no chance of that if they are making money now. Because of that, I brought up that Sony is currently losing money on it's PS3. There is no way it is going to walk away from the console market any time soon, just like MS. I was just using it as an example that companies spend money to make money. Yet you think that what happened in the past is more important than what is currently happening. Or maybe that's your Sony bias? A lot of people disagree with you so they must be fanboys but you are not huh? You said "Yes, but Sony posted losses during the R&D phase of the PS3 and took a hit on each console sold until about 1 1/2 years in!" Until 1 1/2 years in? No, try again. Do you really think that a 40 GB PS3 which has a hard drive, Cell processor, Wi-Fi, etc... costs less than $400 to make? The cheapest stand alone Blu Ray players cost that with no HD, Cell, and WiFi. Of course there are also much more expensive Blu Ray players and they too don't have any of those either. From what I hear, the PS3 is an outstanding Blu Ray player, so why would anybody in their right mind buy anything else? Also, just last fall, Gamespot had an article that said Sony cut it's losses in it's entertainment division to just over a billion dollars. That division includes movies and music which were profitable, as well as video games and consoles like the PS2 and PSP, which were profitable. So where do you think that loss came from. Not R & D, because the PS3 was already done. So yes, Sony is taking a big hit with the PS3. That's great for the consumer because that means I'm getting a bargain if I get a PS3. I was just as happy to know that MS was taking a hit when I bought my Xbox. You wonder what it is like in my world huh? My world doesn't consist of spending half my work day arguing with people in forums on the Internet. My boss and clients can put their confidence in me because I do my job. Today, however is the beginning of a four day weekend hence the post during business hours. I apologize to everybody else for the long post.
I was just imagining for a sec living in goldeneye_basic's world. I can't imagine sitting around at table, discussing MS's earnings, how one division had unexpectedly lost 6 billion dollars and me piping up and saying "Yes, but Sony posted losses during the R&D phase of the PS3 and took a hit on each console sold until about 1 1/2 years in!" If I was not met with open ridicule at the very least this would bring my judgement into question and I would be certain my accounts would come under close scrutiny from my manager from that point on. You can't explain away billions in losses for a company by pointing out that another company also had a loss, once upon a time. If an entire sector is in decline, maybe, but that clearly isn't the case here. Ah, and I see by the thumbs down that the censorship from the MS kids is already in full swing. *Sigh* They should have a disclaimer on these news items that says "Legitimate gamer debate only allowed if 100% pro Microsoft, or 100% anti EA."
I wish Sony would go back to being the company they were during the PS1 era, 10 years ago. They had: low development costs, reasonably priced hardware, lots of good cheap games and a wide variety of software. But that's never going to happen again. They're too busy touting 'Blu-Ray' and development costs are astronomical for Sony and Micro$oft. While there's not yet a clear winner this gen, Wii looks like the best horse to bet on. Nintendo and Sony have switched places since the 5th gen - PS1/N64 era. Now Nintendo has those aforementioned attributes.
Darkride, there you go being all defensive. I never turned it into a console war, I brought up Sony to contradict your flawed logic in your argument. You said "When the 360 finishes it's run, where would you decide it might be better to refocus on something else? Half a billion in losses? 1 billion? 2 billion? At what point do the shareholders take you to task (and court) and make you accountable for this type of management?" You see, I'm using your own argument to point out that MS is now making money on the 360 while the PS3 costs more to make than it's current price points. So, by your logic, it is Sony shareholders that should take Sony to court, not MS shareholders. That's why I brought that up. According to you, that is not a legitimate argument though. Somebody points out you are wrong and all of a sudden that post is not germane to the topic. You complain that "real gamers" can't have a discussion without somebody turning it into a console war. You started trolling the moment you even brought up something as ridiculous as MS might not make another console because some guys on the phone said so. That post certainly doesn't help your claim that you are unbiased. What, you are allowed to say something like that but nobody is allowed to disagree with you? It makes absolutely no sense to stop making a product that makes money. Making hundreds of millions of dollars a quarter is mediocre? Yeah, that's a fraction of 6 billion dollars, but that money is gone, whereas today and tomorrow, hundreds of millions of dollars is coming in. In a few years, that profit will be in the billions. No company would give that up.
The major thing is that the PS3 is over sold by the Wii by 12 million but the 360 is only being oversold by 5-6 million, so if the PS3 is superior to the 360 and Wii why hasnt it surpassed the 360s sales, but the Wii can.
goldeneye_basic. Wow. So is no one allowed to have a discussion regarding gaming issues without someone turning it into a console war post? You missed the point. If you lost one billion dollars yesterday, it really doesn't matter if you make 100 million in a quarter, does it now? And no one was talking about Sony. Sony is actually 5 months ahead of schedule in terms of making money on the hardware being sold, and this was part of the plan. MS losing 4 billion on the Xbox, and another 2 billion or more on the 360 due to hardware problems was NOT part of the plan, despite the fact that they're making money now. Really, no one even mentioned Sony. We're talking about the future of MS's gaming division. I suppose it was only a matter of time before someone came in and started that console war crap when other gamers are trying to have a serious discussion. End of the day, you don't make up for 6 billion in losses by posting a couple of years of mediocre results, and you'd be the stupidest businessman alive if this didn't at least merit some discussion when deciding on the future direction of your company. I was just sharing some discussions that had come up in earnings conference calls regarding MS. Sony was never even mentioned in these calls because we were talking about MS. There's console war forums for this, if all you want to do is spout off about how your console choice "iz da bestest". We were actually trying to have a legitimate exchange of ideas.
Hey Darkride, your whole point about MS losing money in the past is not valid because MS is making money on their games division now and the forecast is that MS will continue to make money on it. I'm not talking about the set top box market and the mp3 player market either, so don't bring that up in your reply. Shareholders are not yelling at them to stop making consoles when each 360 sold makes money. If anything, Sony shareholders should be upset because each PS3 sold loses money. I'm not complaining as a consumer because that means I'm getting a deal on the hardware. Honestly, if the PS3 didn't have Blu Ray functionality, stand alone Blue Ray players would cost more. Consider this though. If console competition came down to all companies selling consoles at a loss to stay competitive, who has more money to throw at it? MS does because it's net profit is far greater than Sony's. I don't care what some idiotic economists are saying on conference calls. There is no way MS is getting out of the console market in the foreseeable future and it is very ignorant to suggest that they might. If I were on a conference call with somebody that said that, I would ask them how they keep their job. Then again, maybe you made that up. I'm not calling you a liar, I'm just saying I don't believe everything on the Internet, especially forum posts.
Seriously, Microsoft hasn't won the race against Sony, they are being outsold even in America. And both the PlayStation and the PlayStation 2 had a life cycle around 10 years. The Ps3 is the better console this time in term of performances, so it should have the same life cycle. The Asian market hasn,t jumped on the Ps3 bandwagon so much at the moment, so eventually, Sony will pick up the lost ground. We should see a leap in that regard when we are down a few months after Metal Gear Solid 4 entry on the market.
There is no chance that Microsoft will pull out of the console race. Why would they spend so much money and effort trying to put Microsoft into a market leading position? Okay, they might not win the race this time around because the Wii has proved to be a phenomenon but who's to say that next time they won't win the race. They are now well and truly established in the console industry and are starting to make a profit now. To say they will pull out now is ludicrous.
Hey, I'm just reporting what's being discussed in the economic conference calls regarding MS. It's only been touched on a couple of times as this is still a fairly small part of their overall business, but the massive losses the game division posted in the past, plus the reception of the Zune has people predicting that MS may pull out of the hardware business rather than continue the long term hemorrhaging of cash that we've seen in the past. These aren't stupid people just spouting off, these are serious econimists who have analysed what MS has been doing and are looking to the future. We're not talking about MS abandoning the 360, as grigjd3 suggested, they're just suggesting that they might sit out the next round and focus on their primary business, making software. It's a business and they need to address the bottom line. Bottom line is they tried it and lost billions. They tried to make a set-top internet TV device in the past and they pulled out of that quickly enough. It's not too much of a leap for MS to say at the end of the 360's run "Ok, we pulled it together at the end but still lost billions overall. Let's focus on software." Sega did exactly the same thing and there was once a time when it was unthinkable. @ Makaatsu. Your Ford reference is far from true. MS is a software company. To use your analogy, it would be like Ford making cars, then branching out and making tires, losing money overall and then focusing on just making cars again. Even MS won't tolerate these type of losses forever. When the 360 finishes it's run, where would you decide it might be better to refocus on something else? Half a billion in losses? 1 billion? 2 billion? At what point do the shareholders take you to task (and court) and make you accountable for this type of management? As I said before, I personally don't think it will happen, but it's something to consider and it's not far fetched.
The only reason Microsoft would leave gaming, Is if they had a strong footing somewhere else "ala did not need gaming." And if they lost their footing in gaming. Which actually they lost the media format, and their about to slip to 3rd "last," in the home systems race in a year or so? And remember these are not world numbers. Which is the only numbers that count. These are "what they want you to think" numbers. But either way. I dont see Sony or Micro moving. As said their just to darn big. Micro owns the PC world. Sony owns the Media world.
It is pretty funny to think MS wouldn't make any more consoles. They pretty much own the hi def next generation games market. MS as Darkride said have only recently started to turn a profit on the 360 and that was like after 2 years. However as their vice president said the other day "The Xbox entered the console frame to late in that generations cycle so it's life cycle was pretty short. The 360 entered the next generation 1st and because of this will have a longer life cycle before our next console is released" So i think whoever has been passing that info around "the stockmarket" must have been pretty stupid. Why would the richest software/hardware maker on the planet decide to not make them anymore? That is like saying Ford will no longer make cars...Hell anyone who watched the keynotes the other month would have saw MS said they plan to have a MS console in every home that acts as a reciver for tv as well as a internet tool capable of streaming hd films and ip on demand technology. If i was a buisness man (which i am) i would laugh at anyone who said MS would not expand on their current footing.
darkride66, you really think a company puts six years of investment into something, finally gets it profitable and having comparable sales to it's direct competition, and then abandons it? Microsoft's place in the console business has longer range plans than just producing a console. They're expirimenting in combining digital services with they're gaming consoles in ways the other companies are just beginning to understand. Games are only one part of the equation, MS has long had the goal of directly using the internet to put their brand on more and more aspects of life. The console war is just another front they've created to do this.
MS has to stay in the console race. It's the only way we can keep future consoles available at low prices and keeping things innovative. I for one don't want any winners or loosers in the console war. If companies merge imagine our next console. Yes probably a truly innovative machine but at what PRICE since there is no competition.....
Darkride said "It wouldn't be too surprising to see MS go the Sega route and just focus on games in the future, that way their current ties and resources won't be for naught." Now, that's an interesting theory. I would be surprised if MS didn't make another console, but weirder things have happened. If that turns out to be true, make sure you screenshot your post to show everyone that you predicted right! Haha... :P
Nineball2112 said "However, I think that no matter who "wins" this generation, that all three will be back next generation as well..... Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo." Personally, I agree. That being said it's not a certainty. I work in the brokerage industry and some of the conference calls I've been in on as of late discussing Microsoft have been pretty cautious. It has been openly rumored that MS may not make another console after the 360 has run it's course. MS's games division, while making a profit now, does not look capable of erasing the billions of losses it suffered in the 6 year lead up to the point were they're making money now. They'll certainly squeeze every penny out of 360 now that it's turning a profit, but it's a tough sell to justify doing it all over again. It wouldn't be too surprising to see MS go the Sega route and just focus on games in the future, that way their current ties and resources won't be for naught.
Why is this guy paid ??? He has been dead wrong on almost every prediction for the last 6 months. The only thing he predicts right every time is that the Wii will win every month....ooooooo, Shocker !
I agree w/ nineball. None of the companies will simply vanish just because they didn't do best in the console war. The GameCube was a catastrophe, and Nintendo is still here, right?
@ Makaatsu - Thanks for the clarification. I do understand what you meant by your first post now. That is an interesting prediction, one in which I don't necessarily agree or disagree with. You might be right in terms of the "console war" in America. However, I think that no matter who "wins" this generation, that all three will be back next generation as well..... Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.
I'm wondering when high gas prices will force people to stop buying games. I'm spending $50 a week on gas. Games falling way down the list these days.
Money is getting tight, myself as well as some of my friends have been forced to cancel preorders on games. More important bills to take care of first.
I would pretty much agree with the predictions. Wii Fit was still nearly impossible to find in the U.S. through the month of May, so June will probably be the month that Wii Fit sales really blast off. I think that MGS 4 will help push more PS3s than GTA IV did, but there's always the possibility that people wanting MGS 4 already grabbed one for GTA IV. I suppose some people might be waiting for the 80GB MGS Bundle, but I don't know when they plan to release that package, so it might not show up in June sales. Basically things will remain the same. Gas is high, the economy is still in flux, I doubt many people will be looking to drop $250 or $400 in June just to play one game.
Unsurprising this is hardly news. Even without all the credit crunch stuff uni students are getting ready to move homes and all that. I mean I had to cancel my orders for NGII and Alone in the Dark to afford my rent.
@Nineball In terms of winning the war in america. Right now the PS3 is 3rd in monthly sales there and month to month sales are down for both 360 and PS3. The GTA4 bump made about 10k extra sales, hardly a big jump. If that game wasent out i'd expect sales would have been far lower. So it is make or break for the PS3 in america in terms of bridging the gap and having a realistic chance of winning. Right now the 360 has about 6m over the PS3 is america and if these figures are true then the gap will again be widening. And Vgchartz have for the first week of June the PS3 on 40k and the 360 on 60k pretty much. So in terms of the PS3 MGS4 needs to give it a big boost. Understand?
slight??.. it could be more than that.. as gas going for $5 a gallon!!.. unless everyone decide to stay game and spend their travel, movies, etc.. expenses on video games!! :)
What nate1222 said. Let's just see how wrong this prediction really is. As for me I went retro two years ago. Becasue of youtube sensations like AVGN,Armake21 and Irate Gamer, people are investing FAR more into the games and consoles of the past and consoles like the NES,Sega Dreamcast,Genesis,PSone and Super NES are becoming hot commodidy's.
if you look at Japanese numbers, there are now more wii fit balance boards in homes then PS3's. The Japanese don't just buy systems when there aren't any games, like the US does. Microsoft's XBOX 360 has barely hit a half-million, and ps3's are at 2,800,000. Wii is domanant in Japan with 6,400,000 strong. (Wii Fit is at 2,890,000, and GH3 on Wii is still top 10 here in the US).
Combatsoldier, i agree to an extent. Wii success lies in price AND casual appeal(also helps that the Japanese hate the xbox). So Xbox arriving close to Wii in price Will see Xboxs move, but not into Wii's territory. Also, Wii has been making a profit from the get go, while Sony barely breaks even(Actually, i am not sure if they even do) and the tiny profit that MS is NOW making does not begin to cover the hole they have dug themselves in, but then again, they can cover these with other divisions.
@ranteal Sebastian believes that trend will continue into May. He did note, however, that the Xbox 360 is primed for a $50 price cut later this year, though Sony will hold steady to its current price point for the PS3. 3rd paragraph.
The combanation of Wii-fit supplies increasing and, the release of MGS4 will no doubt increase sells again.
if there was a price cut then wii would be in trouble. no disrespect to anyone i am just saying the statistical truth. see game companies dont make money off of consoles. they make money off of video games. they actually lose money in the making of consoles but gain it back ten fold in games. I have all the systems but to be honest if the ps3 was any cheaper sony would lose even more money because of the expensive blu ray. however i will admit the price tag on it when it came out as 600 was ridiculous but i bought it any way. you will see as the demand decreases and blu ray moves into the market as the mainstream dvd as it is aready doing. you will notice even more of a price drop in ps3. as for 360 i dont see them getting any lower then they are now and if they do, thats great. as for the wii i dont think it needs to lower price but then again if the other consoles lower in price then the wii will definitely need to lower its cost. That is what made the wii so successful to date is the cheapness in price.
Of course there was a slip. GTA4 in April and a bunch of other sellers compared to...Wii Fit? Who wasn't expecting a slip?
guess what guys? We are in a global recession, things AREN"T gonna pick up soon if the prices aren't lowered. Nintendo is hanging at that sweet spot coming in a $250. That's where they all need to be.
Makaatsu posted: "June really will be the make or break month for the PS3 in America." Huh? Make or break in terms of what? June sales numbers? 2008 YTD numbers? For this generation of consoles? For Sony as a console maker? Could you be more specific? I'm not sure what you mean by "make or break".
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